2011 NFL Playoffs

[Nyi28nhl]

Wild Card Round

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles

Byes: Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots, Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears


Who are your picks?

[MxT13]

Saints by 50

Colts and Ravens by a little, the spread in the Pack game is going to depend on how long it takes Michael Vick to hurt enough to leave the game. Regardless of whether he lasts the whole game, I've got Green Bay.

[Nyi28nhl]

My predictions:

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles


Yeah, three road teams.

Bias aside, I really don't think the Colts will beat the Jets this year. IMO without Peyton Manning this Colts roster is a 4-win team.

[ozzie]

No way the Seahawks can beat New Orleans.

It'll be a tough game for both but I think the Colts and Ravens will both win their games. You're right about the Colts being awful without Manning, but the fact is, they do have Manning.

The Pack got hot at the right time, I think they'll beat the Eagles fairly easily.

[BlackOps]

I obviously agree on the Saints. I'd say the Jets/Colts game is the closest of the week for me. If Manning and his receivers have a good game, they win. If not, they lose. Seems like a pretty simple equation there.

I like the Ravens over the Chiefs, and idk... there's just something in my heart for Michael Vick. I really hope I don't end up rooting for the Eagles the way I did earlier this season.

[Nyi28nhl]

I think the Colts might be the most overrated team in these playoffs.

Teams they beat:
W2: New York Giants 38-14
W3: Denver Broncos 27-13
W5: Kansas City Chiefs 19-9
W6: Washington Redskins 27-24
W8: Houston Texans 30-17
W10: Cincinnati Bengals 23-17
W14: Tennessee Titans 30-28
W15: Jacksonville Jaguars 34-24
W16: Oakland Raiders 31-26
W17: Tennessee Titans 23-20

One playoff team in there. One.

Twice they only beat Tennessee by three points or less. Tennessee was a horrible team this year losing 8 of their last 9 (two of these to the Colts) while going through locker room turmoil.

A lot of very close games to very bad teams in there.

4 of their 6 losses came at the hands of non-playoff teams.

Their rush defense is horrible, worse than every other playoff team including Seattle. Their pass defense is not much better.

Their giveaway/takeaway ratio is negative four, the only playoff team in the AFC with a negative ratio. In fact, only 6 teams in the AFC have a positive ratio five of them being the other playoff teams (plus Cleveland).

This is a far worse team than the Colts had last year. You'll all see Saturday night.

[ozzie]

Yeah, they're overrated....but I'm bias so that doesn't really matter to me. ;D

[BlackOps]

To be fair, they lost two very close games to the Eagles and Patriots, probably the two best teams they played this season. All I'm saying is that Peyton Manning is a scary thing in the playoffs. He's the most important player on that team. If he's making his throws, the game is going to be close. He did have his worst season in awhile, but all of his numbers pretty much fall in line with what he did before.

[ozzie]

Manning had 449 completions this season. (That broke Drew Brees' record of 448)

Now tell me he's having a bad year.

[Nyi28nhl]

Jan 4, 2011 12:46:44 GMT -5 ozzie said:

Manning had 449 completions this season. (That broke Drew Brees' record of 448)

Now tell me he's having a bad year.

To be fair, Brees threw 21 less attempts.

I don't think he's having a bad year, but I think the team around him is crap and one player can only take 22 guys so far. He only has one good receiver right now: Reggie Wayne, and even Wayne has had a down year.

Take the last 25% of this season when he had the same team they are going to the playoffs with (which is different than what they started with) and then prorate the numbers over a full season and this is what he'd have:

388 completions, 3,964 yards. His stats drop significantly.

I don't necessarily think Peyton has lost a step, but his team is horrible around him. Especially the defense. They are ranked 29th in the league against the run which is something the Jets are supposed to specialize in.

[ozzie]

Sure, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon, Blair White, and Jacob Tamme aren't great targets for Manning but if the Colts lost Dallas Clark right now, I wouldn't be worried with Tamme filling in. He's really proven himself to me this year, he probably would have led all TE's in the league with receptions if he had played the entire season, and honestly, Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie aren't great recievers, but Reggie Wayne does enough that they don't have to be great.

Blair White needs work but even he isn't awful.

Their defense held Tennesse to 51 yards on 24 attempts, 20 of them by Chris Johnson, and zero TD's.

[Nyi28nhl]

Jan 4, 2011 17:24:13 GMT -5 ozzie said:

Sure, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon, Blair White, and Jacob Tamme aren't great targets for Manning but if the Colts lost Dallas Clark right now, I wouldn't be worried with Tamme filling in. He's really proven himself to me this year, he probably would have led all TE's in the league with receptions if he had played the entire season, and honestly, Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie aren't great recievers, but Reggie Wayne does enough that they don't have to be great.

Blair White needs work but even he isn't awful.

Austin Collie and Dallas Clark are out for the season.

Pierre Garcon looked like he could be elite last year. This year he looked like a career special teamer.

Tamme has been good, but this is his first year really playing the in the NFL. I'll take my chances on him playing more like a mediocre TE and less like Tony Gonzalez/Dallas Clark.

Peyton Manning's targets for this game at wideout are Wayne, Garcon, White, and Taj Smith. Considering the Jets can takeaway at least two of them with Cromartie and Revis, I couldn't be less worried. Marquice Cole and Kyle Wilson also looked great at corner last weekend, albeit against Buffalo.

Their defense held Tennesse to 51 yards on 24 attempts, 20 of them by Chris Johnson, and zero TD's.

While true, it goes beyond simply those stats. The Colts played strictly to stop the run, loading the box with players and sacrificing the pass defense. It was also Kerry Collins' only 300 yard performance of the year. Both times against Indy Collins hit exactly 71.8% of his passes, threw 5 TDs and 0 picks. Take out those two games, and Collins only hit 52% of his passes for the year.

The Colts D is not good enough to stop the run and the pass. Often times they sacrifice one for the other. Towards the beginning of the year they gave up a lot of rushing yards while not giving much up passing. The last few weeks they were committed to stopping the run and QBs were able to let it loose against them as a result.

This is why I think it's such a mis-match. The Jets can do both.

[ozzie]

Wow...I give up...I can't win this one.

I still think the Colts will somehow win though. You gotta have faith in your team....

[BlackOps]

The wide receivers don't matter. If the ball is there, they'll catch it. Manning is the only part of the equation for that team that leads to victory.

He threw the ball more than he ever has, but with much less efficiency. He had the lowest YPA since his rookie season in 98, most interceptions since 2001, lowest QB rating since 2002.

[Nyi28nhl]

Jan 4, 2011 21:10:50 GMT -5 ozzie said:

Wow...I give up...I can't win this one.

I still think the Colts will somehow win though. You gotta have faith in your team....

There's a reason they play the games and it isn't won on paper.

I just feel that the Jets, despite going on the road, really should be the favorites to win this game. If they lose, I'm not going to be satisfied thinking they got beat by a better team. If they lose, I'll feel like they didn't bring their all or something like that.

The Colts still could very well win, I just don't expect it to happen.