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Post by Nyi28nhl on Dec 15, 2010 9:19:50 GMT -5
It's hard to fathom how he left so much money on the table to go back to the team that traded him away after winning the World Series. Oh well, sucks to be a Mets fan.
Has there ever been a rotation better than Halladay-Lee-Oswalt-Hamels?
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Post by BlackOps on Dec 15, 2010 18:16:17 GMT -5
It's awesome to be a Mets fan. We're getting saberised via Sandy Alderson and co (Paul DePodesta, JP Ricciardi). I'm overly optimistic, which I know is bad and I'm being cautious about, but the approach to NEVER overpay for a deal is the way to go. Finally seeing how it works on a team with a top 5 payroll is going to be fun. It does suck that our ETA goes from 2011 to 2013 in all likelihood, but it is what it is. The Phillies now have one of the best rotations ever, but they also have an insane amount of money tied up in older players (that Howard contract is going to look really ugly halfway in.) As for it being the best rotation ever, it's certainly a fair question. Of the ones who might compete with them for that title, the Braves probably had a better 3 than the Phils did but also probably never had a 4 who rounded out a rotation quite as well. Beyond the Boxscore did this analysis based on seasonal performances, but if you go down their list I don't think you find one rotation that has four guys whose actual talent was as good as these four. The bad thing now is that the Yankees are going to go after Felix Hernandez, sign him to a ten year deal and get him for his age 25-35 seasons. Such a travesty.
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Post by MxT13 on Dec 15, 2010 23:45:25 GMT -5
In reality, Lee didn't leave THAT much money on the table, especially compared to what Werth would have thrown away had he taken the next best offer (which reports say was four years from the Saux). From a winning standpoint in regards to individual and team, I don't think there's any question Lee made the right decision. The NL is undoubtedly easier on pitchers, and he isn't sacrificing anything when it comes to run support.
The one thing that scares me as a Phils fan, however, is the absence of that right-handed bat. Ben Francisco isn't quite doing it for me. My pick to platoon with a learning Domonic Brown was Matt Diaz, but Pittsburgh snatched him up pretty quickly. I think this is going to be an issue that's going to wait until the trade deadline.
As for "best rotation ever," the standard is still the '71 O's: Mike Cuellar - 20-9, 3.08 Pat Dobson - 20-8, 2.90 Jim Palmer - 20-9, 2.68 Dave McNally - 21-5, 2.89 However, I feel very comfortable stating the Phillies have the 2nd best rotation in history, that is, until everyone wins 21. The difference for me between the 90's Braves is the 4th starter. I'm sure there will be those out there who disagree, but I would take Cole Hamels over Denny Neagle and Steve Avery any day.
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Post by Nyi28nhl on Dec 16, 2010 10:52:57 GMT -5
If I recall correctly, Neagle and Avery both had a great year (I think it was 93) that propells that Braves rotation into the discussion.
Right now, I think the Phills have the best rotation in all the years I have followed baseball "on paper". For all we know, one or more of them will get injured for a chunk of the season or have a horrible year.
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Post by MxT13 on Dec 16, 2010 12:23:40 GMT -5
If I recall correctly, Neagle and Avery both had a great year (I think it was 93) that propells that Braves rotation into the discussion. Right now, I think the Phills have the best rotation in all the years I have followed baseball "on paper". For all we know, one or more of them will get injured for a chunk of the season or have a horrible year. Hamels would be most likely to have the bad year, but I don't think any of them will have that problem. Halladay, Lee and Oswalt have been dominant for a long enough time that they know how to pitch when they're good, and they know how to pitch when they're bad. I find it hard to believe any of them could string together 3-4 less than great starts in a row. Hamels could go either way. The mantra around town used to be that he was a whiny head case that couldn't pitch after giving up a few hits. But halfway through 2010 his demeanor changed, and now he's seen as one of the toughest guys on the team. Hopefully he stays mean and throws his good stuff in 2011.
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Post by Nyi28nhl on Dec 16, 2010 23:44:28 GMT -5
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Post by MxT13 on Dec 17, 2010 9:27:20 GMT -5
The funny thing is I bet that's how he really feels knowing he may be traded away from this team. What a bummer for him or Ibanez if the Phils somehow manage to trade either of them.
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Post by BlackOps on Dec 17, 2010 19:23:07 GMT -5
For all we know, one or more of them will get injured for a chunk of the season or have a horrible year. A recent study (Jeff Zimmerman, fangraphs.com) was done trying to figure out the probabilities of pitchers hitting the DL comparing trips to the DL, games started, and age. The results of this show just how volatile starting pitchers' health really is. Obviously this is probably not (right now) something to use at the individual level for the Phillies because their four have been INCREDIBLY durable over the course of their careers. That being said, starting pitcher is the position with the highest likelihood for injury. "The projections estimate that 45 of the pitchers will go on the DL sometime during the season, which is 39% of the pitchers being examined. Looking at 2010, the projections would have predicted 43 players going on the DL and 37 actually did or 34% of the total pitchers." The research is incredibly new and inaccurate, but in the future the numbers will be tweaked and we'll likely have an accurate map to use regarding injury. Obviously you can't ever predict injury, but knowing the numbers going into the season is important. Expecting these four pitchers to end up with 32+ starts is completely unrealistic, even if past seasons tell you it isn't. Part 1Part 2The ProjectionsOswalt: 49.4% Halladay: 43.5% Lee: 42.8% Hamels: 31.3% Like I said, looking at these individual numbers probably isn't very useful, but it makes sense to say that there's a ~40% chance ONE of them will hit the DL at some point next season. This is probably a realistic view for nearly every team in the league, and exactly why teams make backup plans. Who are the 6th and 7th starters for the Phils? How much value would you lose by plugging in Kyle Kendrick for Doc for one month? (a lot) Anyway, I'll be the first to say that it probably won't matter if all of them get hurt at some point. The Phillies should really just hope that three of them are healthy come playoff time.
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Post by Nyi28nhl on Dec 17, 2010 21:53:59 GMT -5
Yeah, it just shows you how unnatural the overhand throwing motion is. It is sad really that shoulder and arm surgeries have become more often than not when it comes to starters. They are putting these kids through Tommy John surgeries at young ages to get it out of the way by the time they turn pro.
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